Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 52.5% vs Johnston 48.0% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Johnston 66.1%
Defensive zone
Johnston 65.4%
Neutral zone
Johnston 66.1%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 65.9%
34.1%
65.9%
Monahan
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Monahan
Johnston
Last 10: Monahan 3-7 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
2
Monahan
Johnston
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
3
Monahan
Johnston
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Monahan
Johnston
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (874)
47.3% (666)
+5.7%
Power Play
54.7% (161)
50.7% (69)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (101)
51.4% (35)
-3.9%
On even strength, Monahan has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Monahan is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (426).
Monahan shoots left. Johnston is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Monahan
Johnston
Home
53.8% (558)
47.5% (364)
Away
51.7% (578)
48.0% (406)
By Period
Monahan
Johnston
P1
49.5%
49.4%
P2
54.8%
46.9%
P3
52.8%
47.1%
OT
61.9%
47.1%
Final 5 min
53.5%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 11:19 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 15:44 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 11:10 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 13:45 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 06:12 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:12 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 03:37 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:07 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |