Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 51.2% vs Johnston 49.0% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 13-8 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 53.4%
Defensive zone
Johnston 80.1%
Neutral zone
Johnston 62.2%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 65.2%
34.8%
65.2%
Monahan
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
13
(21 meetings)
8
13
Monahan
Johnston
Last 10: Monahan 3-7 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
3
Monahan
Johnston
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
6
Monahan
Johnston
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
6
4
Monahan
Johnston
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (11,407)
49.1% (2,232)
+2.0%
Power Play
53.6% (2,582)
52.5% (179)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (772)
44.7% (237)
+1.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Monahan is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (5,426).
Monahan shoots left. Johnston is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,999).
Home / Away
Monahan
Johnston
Home
52.3% (7,387)
49.2% (1,332)
Away
50.2% (7,374)
48.7% (1,316)
By Period
Monahan
Johnston
P1
51.0%
50.0%
P2
51.7%
48.1%
P3
51.0%
48.6%
OT
53.5%
51.5%
Final 5 min
50.2%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 11:19 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 15:44 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 11:10 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 13:45 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 06:12 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:12 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 03:37 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:07 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 11:13 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 14:29 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 19:22 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 08:48 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 08:34 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 15:24 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 00:11 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |