Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Gourde 46.0% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 13-5 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 94.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 57.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 67.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 76.3%
76.3%
23.7%
MacKinnon
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
5
(18 meetings)
13
5
MacKinnon
Gourde
Last 10: MacKinnon 7-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
5
2
MacKinnon
Gourde
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Gourde
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
6
2
MacKinnon
Gourde
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
47.2% (687)
+2.5%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
45.0% (20)
+18.7%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
33.0% (88)
+1.4%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
MacKinnon shoots right. Gourde is 43.8% vs right-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Gourde
Home
53.1% (618)
44.4% (356)
Away
49.1% (609)
46.5% (439)
By Period
MacKinnon
Gourde
P1
49.3%
42.2%
P2
53.0%
50.0%
P3
50.7%
44.5%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 15:07 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 16:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 09:31 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 03:22 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 00:11 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 19:48 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 10:58 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 06:56 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 03:26 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:31 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:18 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 13:38 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 13:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 03:55 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |