Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.8% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.0% vs Gourde 46.0% (+9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 95.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 74.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 83.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 91.8%
91.8%
8.2%
O'Reilly
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
0
(6 meetings)
6
0
O'Reilly
Gourde
Last 6: O'Reilly 6-0 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
0
O'Reilly
Gourde
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
0
O'Reilly
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (856)
47.2% (687)
+8.5%
Power Play
57.5% (233)
45.0% (20)
+12.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (144)
33.0% (88)
+17.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
O'Reilly shoots left. Gourde is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (522).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Gourde
Home
55.5% (616)
44.4% (356)
Away
55.3% (617)
46.5% (439)
By Period
O'Reilly
Gourde
P1
58.1%
42.2%
P2
54.9%
50.0%
P3
53.9%
44.5%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.3%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 1 | 11:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 1 | 06:12 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 09:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:37 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |