Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.9% vs 50.8%). Look for Finley on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Finley 50.7% vs Ostapchuk 50.6% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Finley 59.6%
Defensive zone
Finley 62.3%
Neutral zone
Finley 56.4%
Result
Jack Finley favored at 59.0%
59.0%
41.0%
Finley
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Finley
Ostapchuk
Last 7: Finley 5-2 Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Finley
Ostapchuk
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Finley
2
0
Finley
Ostapchuk
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Finley
2
1
Finley
Ostapchuk
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Finley
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (270)
52.2% (312)
-1.5%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
33.3% (3)
+16.7%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (32)
43.9% (57)
+9.2%
On power play, Finley has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Finley is 50.2% vs left-shot opponents (233).
Finley shoots right. Ostapchuk is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (110).
Home / Away
Finley
Ostapchuk
Home
53.8% (199)
49.1% (161)
Away
46.2% (117)
52.1% (211)
By Period
Finley
Ostapchuk
P1
54.7%
50.8%
P2
47.4%
47.1%
P3
51.8%
54.5%
Final 5 min
49.4%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Finley
64.0%▲
53.5%
50.9%
Ostapchuk
54.0%▲
50.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 09:38 | Offensive | Jack Finley |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 09:23 | Defensive | Jack Finley |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 02:12 | Defensive | Jack Finley |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Finley |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 17:41 | Neutral | Jack Finley |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 12:47 | Offensive | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 17:04 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |