Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.4% vs 50.8%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Harkins 50.9% vs Ostapchuk 50.6% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Harkins 66.9%
Defensive zone
Ostapchuk 58.1%
Neutral zone
Harkins 52.7%
Result
Jansen Harkins favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Harkins
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Harkins
Ostapchuk
Last 5: Harkins 2-3 Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Harkins
1
0
Harkins
Ostapchuk
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
0
2
Harkins
Ostapchuk
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Harkins
Ostapchuk
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Harkins
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (173)
52.2% (312)
-2.5%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
33.3% (3)
+44.5%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (3)
43.9% (57)
+22.8%
On power play, Harkins has a +44.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Harkins is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (114).
Harkins shoots left. Ostapchuk is 50.2% vs left-shot opponents (259).
Home / Away
Harkins
Ostapchuk
Home
55.3% (85)
49.1% (161)
Away
48.0% (100)
52.1% (211)
By Period
Harkins
Ostapchuk
P1
71.4%
50.8%
P2
41.8%
47.1%
P3
43.5%
54.5%
Final 5 min
51.9%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Harkins
48.0%▼
50.5%
51.4%
Ostapchuk
54.0%▲
50.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 05:12 | Defensive | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 01:51 | Defensive | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 06:30 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 02:15 | Offensive | Jansen Harkins |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 02:05 | Neutral | Jansen Harkins |