Scouting Report
Zack Ostapchuk holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Bourque wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Ostapchuk shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.5% vs Ostapchuk 50.6% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bourque 70.1%
Defensive zone
Bourque 68.8%
Neutral zone
Bourque 67.7%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 68.1%
68.1%
31.9%
Bourque
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Bourque
Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
0
1
Bourque
Ostapchuk
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
0
2
Bourque
Ostapchuk
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (186)
52.5% (320)
-5.7%
Power Play
23.5% (17)
33.3% (3)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
42.4% (59)
+0.5%
On power play, Ostapchuk has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Bourque is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (152).
Bourque shoots right. Ostapchuk is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
Bourque
Ostapchuk
Home
41.5% (106)
49.1% (171)
Away
48.1% (104)
52.1% (211)
By Period
Bourque
Ostapchuk
P1
40.6%
50.4%
P2
39.0%
46.8%
P3
51.7%
55.1%
Final 5 min
44.4%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
48.0%▲
46.5%
44.8%
Ostapchuk
52.0%▲
50.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 19:36 | Defensive | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 17:41 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |