Scouting Report
Aatu Raty holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Raty wins 59.4% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Raty 58.7% vs Carrick 52.2% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Carrick 53.3%
Defensive zone
Carrick 81.9%
Neutral zone
Carrick 65.0%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 71.6%
28.4%
71.6%
Raty
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Raty
Carrick
Last 10: Raty 4-6 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Raty
2
1
Raty
Carrick
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
2
4
Raty
Carrick
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Raty
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Raty
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (905)
52.2% (2,544)
+6.5%
Power Play
71.1% (38)
61.3% (75)
+9.8%
Penalty Kill
62.8% (113)
50.8% (435)
+12.0%
On penalty kill, Raty has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Raty is 59.4% vs right-shot opponents (345).
Raty shoots left. Carrick is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,211).
Home / Away
Raty
Carrick
Home
58.9% (569)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
60.4% (487)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Raty
Carrick
P1
59.5%
51.8%
P2
62.8%
52.3%
P3
56.7%
52.6%
OT
53.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
61.6%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Raty
62.0%▼
64.5%
59.6%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 15:20 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 08:06 | Offensive | Aatu Raty |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 09:50 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 09:43 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 18:09 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 12:18 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 02:56 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 16:05 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 10:55 | Offensive | Aatu Raty |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 05:12 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |