Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 49.6% vs Matthews 58.8% (-10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 91.6%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 75.8%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 81.6%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 89.1%
89.1%
10.9%
Fantilli
Matthews
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Fantilli
Matthews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
0
3
Fantilli
Matthews
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
0
1
Fantilli
Matthews
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Matthews
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (887)
59.8% (848)
-10.4%
Power Play
51.4% (105)
64.9% (37)
-13.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
56.3% (87)
-6.3%
On power play, Matthews has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthews shoots left. Fantilli is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Fantilli shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Matthews
Home
50.7% (503)
60.0% (520)
Away
48.5% (501)
59.3% (452)
By Period
Fantilli
Matthews
P1
47.0%
60.2%
P2
52.5%
58.2%
P3
49.7%
60.4%
OT
33.3%
70.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.6%
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 15:21 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 09:44 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 09:36 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 3 | 15:45 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |