Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 49.6% vs Nelson 50.8% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 64.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 77.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.6%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 58.0%
58.0%
42.0%
Fantilli
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Fantilli
Nelson
Last 9: Fantilli 5-4 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
4
1
Fantilli
Nelson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
3
Fantilli
Nelson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (887)
50.9% (928)
-1.5%
Power Play
51.4% (105)
59.8% (179)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
43.4% (205)
+6.6%
On power play, Nelson has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Fantilli is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Fantilli shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Nelson
Home
50.7% (503)
52.9% (654)
Away
48.5% (501)
48.9% (658)
By Period
Fantilli
Nelson
P1
47.0%
48.4%
P2
52.5%
54.3%
P3
49.7%
50.5%
OT
33.3%
41.2%
Final 5 min
50.9%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.6%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 16:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:14 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:10 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 19:01 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 18:53 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 16:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 19:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 01:44 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |