Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (62% H2H, 13 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.3% vs Nelson 48.3% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Fantilli leads 17-16 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 58.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 70.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 58.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.8%
46.2%
53.8%
Fantilli
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
16
(33 meetings)
17
16
Fantilli
Nelson
Last 10: Fantilli 6-4 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
8
5
Fantilli
Nelson
13 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Fantilli
Nelson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
8
Fantilli
Nelson
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,179)
47.9% (9,744)
-3.2%
Power Play
51.4% (210)
54.7% (1,149)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
43.8% (790)
-13.0%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Fantilli is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,604).
Fantilli shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Nelson
Home
47.3% (1,209)
50.1% (5,878)
Away
42.9% (1,206)
46.5% (5,806)
By Period
Fantilli
Nelson
P1
43.8%
48.7%
P2
46.3%
48.6%
P3
45.9%
47.7%
OT
25.8%
45.6%
Final 5 min
43.9%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 16:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:14 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:10 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 19:01 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 18:53 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 16:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 19:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 01:44 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 04:01 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 12:39 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 07:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 07:39 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 06:35 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 03:59 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 01:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:27 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:53 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 14:51 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |