Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Fantilli wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Coyle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.3% vs Coyle 48.8% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Fantilli leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Coyle 56.4%
Defensive zone
Coyle 89.8%
Neutral zone
Coyle 75.5%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 66.8%
33.2%
66.8%
Fantilli
Coyle
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Fantilli
Coyle
Last 10: Fantilli 7-3 Coyle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
6
1
Fantilli
Coyle
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Coyle
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
2
Fantilli
Coyle
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Coyle
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,179)
49.4% (7,898)
-4.7%
Power Play
51.4% (210)
50.0% (794)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
43.5% (1,100)
-12.7%
On penalty kill, Coyle has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Coyle shoots right. Fantilli is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (811).
Fantilli shoots left. Coyle is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,015).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Coyle
Home
47.3% (1,209)
49.8% (4,865)
Away
42.9% (1,206)
47.9% (4,927)
By Period
Fantilli
Coyle
P1
43.8%
49.5%
P2
46.3%
48.3%
P3
45.9%
48.8%
OT
25.8%
49.0%
Final 5 min
43.9%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 11:44 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 05:19 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 03:14 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 2 | 17:52 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 2 | 12:43 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 00:37 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 3, 2023 | 2 | 05:39 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 3 | 10:23 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 3 | 08:24 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 2 | 15:11 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 2 | 09:11 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 1 | 15:52 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |