Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 49.6% vs Evans 55.0% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 83.0%
Defensive zone
Evans 89.4%
Neutral zone
Evans 53.6%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Fantilli
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Fantilli
Evans
Last 5: Fantilli 3-2 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
1
Fantilli
Evans
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
1
0
Fantilli
Evans
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
1
Fantilli
Evans
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (887)
55.6% (522)
-6.2%
Power Play
51.4% (105)
72.7% (11)
-21.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
55.2% (210)
-5.2%
On power play, Evans has a +21.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Fantilli is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (347).
Fantilli shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Evans
Home
50.7% (503)
54.7% (402)
Away
48.5% (501)
56.9% (341)
By Period
Fantilli
Evans
P1
47.0%
57.9%
P2
52.5%
55.2%
P3
49.7%
53.6%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.9%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.6%
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 16:37 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:41 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 08:53 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 08:44 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 04:47 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |