Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Fantilli wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.3% vs Evans 52.2% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 12-6 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 92.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 59.0%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 74.4%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 58.8%
58.8%
41.2%
Fantilli
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
12
(18 meetings)
6
12
Fantilli
Evans
Last 10: Fantilli 4-6 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
1
Fantilli
Evans
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
9
Fantilli
Evans
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
3
2
Fantilli
Evans
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,179)
53.7% (3,740)
-9.0%
Power Play
51.4% (210)
60.6% (71)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
47.1% (1,228)
-16.3%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Fantilli is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (811).
Fantilli shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,738).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Evans
Home
47.3% (1,209)
53.3% (2,621)
Away
42.9% (1,206)
51.0% (2,418)
By Period
Fantilli
Evans
P1
43.8%
54.0%
P2
46.3%
50.9%
P3
45.9%
52.0%
OT
25.8%
46.5%
Final 5 min
43.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 16:37 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:41 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 08:53 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 08:44 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 04:47 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 16:14 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 02:05 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 14:04 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 04:21 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 11:22 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 07:42 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 07:33 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 02:13 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 02:03 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 10:33 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 29, 2023 | 1 | 12:38 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 11:44 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 05:56 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |