Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.3% vs Eller 50.5% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Eller leads 12-3 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 94.0%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 68.2%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 79.6%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 79.6%
79.6%
20.4%
Fantilli
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
12
(15 meetings)
3
12
Fantilli
Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
3
Fantilli
Eller
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
5
Fantilli
Eller
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
2
4
Fantilli
Eller
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,179)
51.1% (10,321)
-6.4%
Power Play
51.4% (210)
52.8% (621)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
46.6% (1,759)
-15.8%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Fantilli is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,604).
Fantilli shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,142).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Eller
Home
47.3% (1,209)
51.4% (6,122)
Away
42.9% (1,206)
49.7% (6,607)
By Period
Fantilli
Eller
P1
43.8%
51.2%
P2
46.3%
50.1%
P3
45.9%
50.2%
OT
25.8%
56.7%
Final 5 min
43.9%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:04 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 3 | 11:45 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 2 | 01:41 | Defensive | Lars Eller |