Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 49.6% vs Carlsson 44.6% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Carlsson leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 52.8%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 78.0%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 61.6%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 64.5%
35.5%
64.5%
Fantilli
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Fantilli
Carlsson
Last 10: Fantilli 3-7 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
0
Fantilli
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
3
Fantilli
Carlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
4
Fantilli
Carlsson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (887)
45.0% (695)
+4.4%
Power Play
51.4% (105)
46.4% (84)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
32.9% (85)
+17.1%
On penalty kill, Fantilli has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Fantilli is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Fantilli shoots left. Carlsson is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Carlsson
Home
50.7% (503)
42.5% (435)
Away
48.5% (501)
45.5% (429)
By Period
Fantilli
Carlsson
P1
47.0%
45.3%
P2
52.5%
38.7%
P3
49.7%
48.5%
OT
33.3%
41.7%
Final 5 min
50.9%
38.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.6%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:51 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:41 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 13:14 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 04:07 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 03:50 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 06:28 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 03:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 16, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |