Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Bourque shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 49.6% vs Bourque 46.5% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 77.4%
Defensive zone
Bourque 61.5%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 63.5%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 77.4%
77.4%
22.6%
Fantilli
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Fantilli
Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
1
Fantilli
Bourque
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (887)
46.8% (186)
+2.6%
Power Play
51.4% (105)
23.5% (17)
+27.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
42.9% (7)
+7.1%
On power play, Fantilli has a +27.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Fantilli is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (347).
Fantilli shoots left. Bourque is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (152).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Bourque
Home
50.7% (503)
41.5% (106)
Away
48.5% (501)
48.1% (104)
By Period
Fantilli
Bourque
P1
47.0%
40.6%
P2
52.5%
39.0%
P3
49.7%
51.7%
Final 5 min
50.9%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.6%
Bourque
48.0%▲
46.5%
44.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 10:04 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 18:35 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 02:48 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |