Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 49.6% vs Sturm 53.6% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 70.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 92.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 64.5%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 70.2%
70.2%
29.8%
Fantilli
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Fantilli
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
0
Fantilli
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (887)
54.6% (271)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
54.4% (90)
-4.4%
On even strength, Sturm has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Fantilli is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Fantilli shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Sturm
Home
50.7% (503)
53.0% (168)
Away
48.5% (501)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Fantilli
Sturm
P1
47.0%
58.2%
P2
52.5%
53.2%
P3
49.7%
52.3%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.6%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 17:10 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 07:54 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |