Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.3% vs Sturm 56.1% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 53.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 95.5%
Neutral zone
Sturm 87.9%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 59.7%
40.3%
59.7%
Fantilli
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Fantilli
Sturm
Last 7: Fantilli 5-2 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
5
0
Fantilli
Sturm
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Fantilli
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Fantilli
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,179)
57.1% (2,719)
-12.4%
Power Play
51.4% (210)
61.3% (62)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
51.0% (498)
-20.2%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Fantilli is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,604).
Fantilli shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Sturm
Home
47.3% (1,209)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
42.9% (1,206)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Fantilli
Sturm
P1
43.8%
56.5%
P2
46.3%
54.9%
P3
45.9%
57.4%
OT
25.8%
60.6%
Final 5 min
43.9%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 17:10 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 07:54 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 12:32 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 12:25 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 07:45 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:29 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 09:17 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |