Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 49.6% vs Cates 45.5% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 64.1%
Defensive zone
Cates 68.3%
Neutral zone
Cates 51.8%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Fantilli
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Fantilli
Cates
Last 5: Fantilli 2-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Fantilli
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (887)
45.5% (756)
+3.9%
Power Play
51.4% (105)
42.1% (114)
+9.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
44.7% (47)
+5.3%
On power play, Fantilli has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Fantilli is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Fantilli shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Cates
Home
50.7% (503)
46.2% (468)
Away
48.5% (501)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Fantilli
Cates
P1
47.0%
46.0%
P2
52.5%
47.5%
P3
49.7%
42.1%
OT
33.3%
18.2%
Final 5 min
50.9%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.6%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 05:07 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 11:18 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 06:42 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 06:33 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |