Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.3% vs Cates 43.2% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 66.5%
Defensive zone
Cates 80.4%
Neutral zone
Cates 59.1%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Fantilli
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
Fantilli
Cates
Last 10: Fantilli 4-6 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Fantilli
Cates
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
4
Fantilli
Cates
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
1
3
Fantilli
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,179)
44.1% (2,786)
+0.6%
Power Play
51.4% (210)
42.9% (254)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
34.9% (373)
-4.1%
On power play, Fantilli has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Fantilli is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,604).
Fantilli shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Cates
Home
47.3% (1,209)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
42.9% (1,206)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Fantilli
Cates
P1
43.8%
44.5%
P2
46.3%
43.7%
P3
45.9%
41.2%
OT
25.8%
29.4%
Final 5 min
43.9%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 05:07 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 11:18 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 06:42 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 06:33 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 08:13 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 11:39 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 08:52 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 09:48 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 09:44 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 09:37 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 15:47 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 19:04 | Offensive | Noah Cates |