Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.3% vs Kelly 41.7% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 74.7%
Defensive zone
Kelly 84.3%
Neutral zone
Kelly 62.6%
Result
Parker Kelly favored at 60.7%
39.3%
60.7%
Fantilli
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Fantilli
Kelly
Last 8: Fantilli 2-6 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
1
Fantilli
Kelly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
1
Fantilli
Kelly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
4
Fantilli
Kelly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,179)
42.0% (758)
+2.7%
Power Play
51.4% (210)
0.0% (3)
+51.4%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
36.8% (174)
-6.0%
On power play, Fantilli has a +51.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Fantilli is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,604).
Fantilli shoots left. Kelly is 41.4% vs left-shot opponents (630).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Kelly
Home
47.3% (1,209)
42.4% (476)
Away
42.9% (1,206)
39.2% (459)
By Period
Fantilli
Kelly
P1
43.8%
42.3%
P2
46.3%
44.7%
P3
45.9%
35.6%
OT
25.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.9%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 16:15 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 19:43 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 19:35 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 04:33 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 01:56 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:57 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:52 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 01:26 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |