Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.5% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.1% vs Zacha 49.1% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 67.6%
Defensive zone
Zacha 55.4%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 53.3%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 55.9%
55.9%
44.1%
Fantilli
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Fantilli
Zacha
Last 10: Fantilli 4-6 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
1
Fantilli
Zacha
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Zacha
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
4
Fantilli
Zacha
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (1,930)
48.8% (4,953)
-4.6%
Power Play
53.4% (163)
55.8% (788)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (24)
42.0% (547)
-8.7%
On penalty kill, Zacha has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Fantilli is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,412).
Fantilli shoots left. Zacha is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,816).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Zacha
Home
47.5% (1,040)
49.6% (3,278)
Away
42.2% (1,077)
48.5% (3,010)
By Period
Fantilli
Zacha
P1
43.9%
49.9%
P2
45.9%
49.1%
P3
45.4%
47.9%
OT
23.1%
54.9%
Final 5 min
43.9%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
58.0%▲
51.0%
44.8%
Zacha
48.0%▼
51.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 07:48 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 10:24 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 07:29 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 19:06 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 12:53 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 05:17 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 00:55 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 10:50 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 3 | 10:18 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 3 | 04:51 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |