Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Fantilli wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.3% vs Thompson 42.8% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 56.8%
Defensive zone
Thompson 74.5%
Neutral zone
Thompson 59.2%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
Fantilli
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Fantilli
Thompson
Last 9: Fantilli 4-5 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
3
Fantilli
Thompson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
Fantilli
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
1
Fantilli
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,179)
42.9% (3,540)
+1.8%
Power Play
51.4% (210)
46.9% (373)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
33.6% (265)
-2.8%
On power play, Fantilli has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Fantilli is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (811).
Fantilli shoots left. Thompson is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,029).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Thompson
Home
47.3% (1,209)
44.8% (2,135)
Away
42.9% (1,206)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Fantilli
Thompson
P1
43.8%
44.4%
P2
46.3%
43.7%
P3
45.9%
40.0%
OT
25.8%
36.4%
Final 5 min
43.9%
40.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 02:26 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 00:07 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 11:52 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 04:02 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 13:40 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 07:55 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 01:10 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 00:55 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 00:30 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |