Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.6% vs Novak 44.9% (+8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 59.9%
Defensive zone
Novak 55.0%
Neutral zone
Novak 57.3%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 57.8%
42.2%
57.8%
Fantilli
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Fantilli
Novak
Last 7: Fantilli 3-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
Fantilli
Novak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (638)
41.7% (206)
+8.3%
Power Play
56.9% (58)
52.6% (19)
+4.3%
On even strength, Fantilli has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Fantilli is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (465).
Fantilli shoots left. Novak is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Novak
Home
53.0% (334)
44.9% (118)
Away
48.7% (372)
40.2% (107)
By Period
Fantilli
Novak
P1
48.7%
41.5%
P2
53.9%
44.0%
P3
49.8%
42.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
58.0%▲
51.0%
50.7%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 19:25 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:32 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 01:10 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 17:14 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 07:41 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 13:28 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 11:45 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |