Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 49.6% vs Novak 42.5% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 53.8%
Defensive zone
Novak 56.0%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 50.3%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Fantilli
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Fantilli
Novak
Last 7: Fantilli 3-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
Fantilli
Novak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (887)
40.4% (408)
+9.0%
Power Play
51.4% (105)
45.5% (33)
+5.9%
On even strength, Fantilli has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Fantilli is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Fantilli shoots left. Novak is 41.6% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Novak
Home
50.7% (503)
42.0% (212)
Away
48.5% (501)
39.7% (229)
By Period
Fantilli
Novak
P1
47.0%
41.9%
P2
52.5%
39.3%
P3
49.7%
42.1%
OT
33.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.6%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 19:25 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:32 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 01:10 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 17:14 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 07:41 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 13:28 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 11:45 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |