Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.3% vs Novak 43.0% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 61.0%
Defensive zone
Novak 60.0%
Neutral zone
Novak 60.7%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 60.7%
39.3%
60.7%
Fantilli
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Fantilli
Novak
Last 9: Fantilli 3-6 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
3
Fantilli
Novak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
Fantilli
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,179)
41.8% (1,568)
+2.9%
Power Play
51.4% (210)
51.5% (134)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
50.0% (2)
-19.2%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Fantilli is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,604).
Fantilli shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Novak
Home
47.3% (1,209)
45.1% (831)
Away
42.9% (1,206)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Fantilli
Novak
P1
43.8%
43.7%
P2
46.3%
42.8%
P3
45.9%
41.1%
OT
25.8%
57.1%
Final 5 min
43.9%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 19:25 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:32 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 01:10 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 17:14 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 07:41 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 13:28 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 11:45 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 05:23 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 11:46 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |