Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 49.6% vs Gourde 46.0% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 69.4%
Defensive zone
Gourde 82.8%
Neutral zone
Gourde 59.7%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 60.5%
39.5%
60.5%
Fantilli
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
9
(13 meetings)
4
9
Fantilli
Gourde
Last 10: Fantilli 4-6 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
0
Fantilli
Gourde
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
1
Fantilli
Gourde
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
8
Fantilli
Gourde
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (887)
47.2% (687)
+2.2%
Power Play
51.4% (105)
45.0% (20)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
33.0% (88)
+17.0%
On penalty kill, Fantilli has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Fantilli is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Fantilli shoots left. Gourde is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (522).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Gourde
Home
50.7% (503)
44.4% (356)
Away
48.5% (501)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Fantilli
Gourde
P1
47.0%
42.2%
P2
52.5%
50.0%
P3
49.7%
44.5%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.6%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 08:46 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 03:04 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 18:47 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 16:17 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 06:13 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 08:37 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 02:58 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 14:39 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |