Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 11 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.3% vs Gourde 48.2% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 82.6%
Defensive zone
Gourde 54.2%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 62.0%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
Fantilli
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
13
(19 meetings)
6
13
Fantilli
Gourde
Last 10: Fantilli 4-6 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
4
0
Fantilli
Gourde
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Fantilli
Gourde
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
11
Fantilli
Gourde
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,179)
48.4% (4,987)
-3.7%
Power Play
51.4% (210)
57.4% (376)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
40.0% (555)
-9.2%
On penalty kill, Gourde has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Fantilli is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,604).
Fantilli shoots left. Gourde is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,967).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Gourde
Home
47.3% (1,209)
49.3% (2,949)
Away
42.9% (1,206)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Fantilli
Gourde
P1
43.8%
49.8%
P2
46.3%
47.5%
P3
45.9%
47.5%
OT
25.8%
37.0%
Final 5 min
43.9%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 08:46 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 03:04 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 18:47 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 16:17 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 06:13 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 08:37 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 02:58 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 14:39 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 1 | 06:12 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 12:29 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 13:42 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 09:54 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 09:45 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 01:37 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |