Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Gaudette wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudette 44.8% vs Staal 55.3% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Gaudette 88.4%
Defensive zone
Gaudette 76.7%
Neutral zone
Gaudette 83.8%
Result
Adam Gaudette favored at 81.9%
81.9%
18.1%
Gaudette
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Gaudette
Staal
Last 10: Gaudette 2-8 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaudette
2
0
Gaudette
Staal
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
4
Gaudette
Staal
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
0
4
Gaudette
Staal
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudette
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
44.0% (1,485)
55.9% (14,654)
-11.9%
Power Play
47.5% (183)
62.7% (1,762)
-15.2%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (15)
47.9% (2,907)
-1.2%
On power play, Staal has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Gaudette is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,202).
Gaudette shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,583).
Home / Away
Gaudette
Staal
Home
46.0% (913)
56.4% (9,699)
Away
42.6% (770)
54.3% (9,689)
By Period
Gaudette
Staal
P1
44.9%
55.2%
P2
46.6%
55.9%
P3
41.4%
54.8%
OT
100.0%
56.2%
Final 5 min
46.9%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudette
52.0%▲
48.5%
44.4%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 08:06 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 11:39 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| May 4, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| May 4, 2021 | 1 | 19:21 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| May 4, 2021 | 1 | 16:42 | Offensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Feb 2, 2020 | 3 | 15:19 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 2, 2020 | 2 | 11:10 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 2, 2020 | 1 | 08:54 | Offensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 1 | 05:43 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 1 | 05:39 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |