Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Henrique wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.5% vs Nelson 50.7% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 72.7%
Defensive zone
Henrique 53.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 56.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 64.6%
35.4%
64.6%
Henrique
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Henrique
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Henrique
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Henrique
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (395)
50.8% (917)
+4.6%
Power Play
50.0% (22)
59.1% (176)
-9.1%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (134)
43.1% (204)
+7.6%
On power play, Nelson has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Henrique is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (371).
Henrique shoots left. Nelson is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Home / Away
Henrique
Nelson
Home
52.4% (227)
52.6% (639)
Away
55.2% (324)
48.9% (658)
By Period
Henrique
Nelson
P1
57.0%
48.3%
P2
52.5%
54.0%
P3
52.4%
50.4%
OT
100.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
47.8%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
50.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
Nelson
54.0%▼
55.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 04:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 04:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |