Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Henrique wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.5% vs Nelson 50.8% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 69.7%
Defensive zone
Henrique 55.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 62.5%
37.5%
62.5%
Henrique
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Henrique
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Henrique
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Henrique
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (395)
50.9% (928)
+4.5%
Power Play
50.0% (22)
59.8% (179)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (134)
43.4% (205)
+7.3%
On power play, Nelson has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Henrique is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (371).
Henrique shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Home / Away
Henrique
Nelson
Home
52.4% (227)
52.9% (654)
Away
55.2% (324)
48.9% (658)
By Period
Henrique
Nelson
P1
57.0%
48.4%
P2
52.5%
54.3%
P3
52.4%
50.5%
OT
100.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
47.8%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
50.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 04:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 04:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |