Adam Henrique vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Henrique wins 53.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.5% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 81.1%
Defensive zone
Henrique 77.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Henrique
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Henrique
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Henrique
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
0
Henrique
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (395)
49.7% (1,038)
+5.7%
Power Play
50.0% (22)
63.7% (157)
-13.7%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (134)
34.4% (32)
+16.3%
On penalty kill, Henrique has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Henrique is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (180).
Henrique shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Henrique
MacKinnon
Home
52.4% (227)
53.1% (618)
Away
55.2% (324)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Henrique
MacKinnon
P1
57.0%
49.3%
P2
52.5%
53.0%
P3
52.4%
50.7%
OT
100.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
47.8%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
50.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 11:45 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 16:45 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 09:09 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 06:43 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |