Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Henrique wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.5% vs Cates 45.5% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 74.2%
Defensive zone
Henrique 75.6%
Neutral zone
Cates 53.0%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Henrique
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Henrique
Cates
Last 6: Henrique 3-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Henrique
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
0
Henrique
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Henrique
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (395)
45.5% (756)
+9.9%
Power Play
50.0% (22)
42.1% (114)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (134)
44.7% (47)
+6.0%
On even strength, Henrique has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Henrique is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (371).
Henrique shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Home / Away
Henrique
Cates
Home
52.4% (227)
46.2% (468)
Away
55.2% (324)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Henrique
Cates
P1
57.0%
46.0%
P2
52.5%
47.5%
P3
52.4%
42.1%
OT
100.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
47.8%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
50.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 07:45 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 13:12 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 05:55 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 01:28 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:00 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:22 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |