Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 50.6% vs Cates 43.2% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Henrique 51.9%
Defensive zone
Cates 53.7%
Neutral zone
Cates 53.3%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Henrique
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Henrique
Cates
Last 10: Henrique 5-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
4
Henrique
Cates
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
4
3
Henrique
Cates
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Henrique
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (9,546)
44.1% (2,786)
+6.6%
Power Play
54.5% (1,763)
42.9% (254)
+11.6%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (1,832)
34.9% (373)
+11.3%
On power play, Henrique has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Henrique is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,525).
Henrique shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Home / Away
Henrique
Cates
Home
52.5% (6,430)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
48.8% (6,734)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Henrique
Cates
P1
50.6%
44.5%
P2
51.4%
43.7%
P3
50.3%
41.2%
OT
40.6%
29.4%
Final 5 min
50.3%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
50.0%▼
52.0%
50.6%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 07:45 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 13:12 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 05:55 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 01:28 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:00 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:22 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 05:57 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 01:39 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 16:46 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 05:08 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 04:51 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 04:40 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 2 | 11:08 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 1 | 13:15 | Defensive | Noah Cates |