Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.6% vs 55.3%). Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Henrique wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 55.1% vs Aho 54.9% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 75.2%
Defensive zone
Henrique 76.5%
Neutral zone
Henrique 52.4%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Henrique
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Henrique
Aho
Last 7: Henrique 2-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
4
Henrique
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
1
Henrique
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (723)
54.5% (870)
+3.0%
Power Play
73.2% (56)
62.4% (266)
+10.8%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (231)
37.1% (62)
+8.4%
On power play, Henrique has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Henrique is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (725).
Henrique shoots left. Aho is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (805).
Home / Away
Henrique
Aho
Home
56.4% (518)
53.9% (603)
Away
54.9% (492)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Henrique
Aho
P1
56.0%
54.1%
P2
55.2%
55.0%
P3
56.2%
57.4%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.8%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
58.0%▲
52.5%
55.6%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 10:02 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 09:59 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 03:31 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 11:08 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 15:24 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 15:06 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 09:39 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |