Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 49.1% vs Tkachuk 52.1% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 89.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 90.7%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 57.1%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Lowry
Tkachuk
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Lowry
Tkachuk
Last 9: Lowry 5-4 Tkachuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
0
4
Lowry
Tkachuk
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
4
0
Lowry
Tkachuk
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Tkachuk
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Tkachuk
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (1,064)
47.9% (192)
+1.4%
Power Play
67.7% (65)
57.8% (187)
+9.9%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (251)
0.0% (1)
+42.6%
On penalty kill, Lowry has a +42.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tkachuk shoots left. Lowry is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Lowry shoots left. Tkachuk is 59.6% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Home / Away
Lowry
Tkachuk
Home
50.2% (671)
56.0% (175)
Away
47.8% (709)
49.8% (205)
By Period
Lowry
Tkachuk
P1
48.4%
55.0%
P2
50.1%
51.9%
P3
47.8%
47.3%
OT
66.7%
77.8%
Final 5 min
43.8%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
68.0%▲
55.5%
49.0%
Tkachuk
56.0%▬
57.0%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 17:19 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 17:33 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 18:44 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 18:38 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 08:45 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 17:32 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 05:20 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 11:28 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |