Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.5% vs Tkachuk 55.0% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 83.6%
Defensive zone
Lowry 87.9%
Neutral zone
Lowry 57.7%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 70.1%
70.1%
29.9%
Lowry
Tkachuk
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Lowry
Tkachuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
0
1
Lowry
Tkachuk
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
Tkachuk
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Tkachuk
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (707)
54.9% (153)
+0.8%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
59.4% (106)
+26.3%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (100)
100.0% (1)
-61.0%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +61.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tkachuk shoots left. Lowry is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Lowry shoots left. Tkachuk is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (183).
Home / Away
Lowry
Tkachuk
Home
54.3% (429)
50.8% (128)
Away
53.5% (385)
62.9% (132)
By Period
Lowry
Tkachuk
P1
53.1%
56.6%
P2
55.2%
58.9%
P3
54.4%
56.2%
OT
40.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.1%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 12:17 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 05:46 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 3 | 18:54 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:30 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |