Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.5% vs Nelson 50.8% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 16-11 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 73.4%
Defensive zone
Lowry 55.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 57.7%
42.3%
57.7%
Lowry
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
16
(27 meetings)
11
16
Lowry
Nelson
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
8
Lowry
Nelson
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
4
2
Lowry
Nelson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
6
6
Lowry
Nelson
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (707)
50.9% (928)
+4.8%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
59.8% (179)
+25.9%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (100)
43.4% (205)
-4.4%
On power play, Lowry has a +25.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Lowry is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Lowry shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Home / Away
Lowry
Nelson
Home
54.3% (429)
52.9% (654)
Away
53.5% (385)
48.9% (658)
By Period
Lowry
Nelson
P1
53.1%
48.4%
P2
55.2%
54.3%
P3
54.4%
50.5%
OT
40.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
57.1%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 19:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 11:05 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 08:18 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 07:28 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 16:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 10:53 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 18:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 07:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 10:20 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 19:18 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 18:44 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 16:17 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 14:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 02:46 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 02:35 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |