Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 34 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Nelson 48.3% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 43-41 in 84 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 71.2%
Defensive zone
Lowry 74.9%
Neutral zone
Lowry 62.9%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Lowry
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
43
-
41
(84 meetings)
43
41
Lowry
Nelson
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
14
20
Lowry
Nelson
34 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
13
9
Lowry
Nelson
22 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
16
12
Lowry
Nelson
28 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (9,162)
47.9% (9,744)
+5.0%
Power Play
57.2% (456)
54.7% (1,149)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (2,150)
43.8% (790)
+1.0%
On even strength, Lowry has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,758).
Lowry shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Home / Away
Lowry
Nelson
Home
53.5% (5,920)
50.1% (5,878)
Away
49.6% (5,848)
46.5% (5,806)
By Period
Lowry
Nelson
P1
51.6%
48.7%
P2
51.7%
48.6%
P3
51.5%
47.7%
OT
46.3%
45.6%
Final 5 min
52.8%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
51.6%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 19:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 11:05 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 08:18 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 07:28 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 16:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 10:53 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 18:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 07:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 10:20 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 19:18 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 18:44 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 16:17 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 14:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 02:46 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 02:35 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |