Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.5% vs McDavid 48.1% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 68.5%
Defensive zone
Lowry 83.9%
Neutral zone
Lowry 67.0%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 60.3%
60.3%
39.7%
Lowry
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Lowry
McDavid
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
3
Lowry
McDavid
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
1
Lowry
McDavid
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
McDavid
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (707)
47.7% (686)
+8.0%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
49.3% (75)
+36.4%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (100)
48.9% (45)
-9.9%
On power play, Lowry has a +36.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Lowry is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Lowry shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
Home / Away
Lowry
McDavid
Home
54.3% (429)
50.0% (412)
Away
53.5% (385)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Lowry
McDavid
P1
53.1%
48.0%
P2
55.2%
48.5%
P3
54.4%
47.1%
OT
40.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.1%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 02:17 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 17:02 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 09:33 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 06:33 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:38 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:30 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 15:35 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 10:23 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 04:12 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |