Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (81% H2H, 42 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs McDavid 47.8% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 78-55 in 133 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 84.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 50.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 63.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 65.9%
34.1%
65.9%
Lowry
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
55
-
78
(133 meetings)
55
78
Lowry
McDavid
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
8
34
Lowry
McDavid
42 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
22
20
Lowry
McDavid
42 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
25
24
Lowry
McDavid
49 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (9,162)
47.7% (8,394)
+5.2%
Power Play
57.2% (456)
52.1% (374)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (2,150)
43.8% (281)
+1.0%
On even strength, Lowry has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,758).
Lowry shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
Home / Away
Lowry
McDavid
Home
53.5% (5,920)
49.3% (4,582)
Away
49.6% (5,848)
46.2% (4,467)
By Period
Lowry
McDavid
P1
51.6%
46.5%
P2
51.7%
48.7%
P3
51.5%
48.3%
OT
46.3%
42.2%
Final 5 min
52.8%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
51.6%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 02:17 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 17:02 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 09:33 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 06:33 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:38 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:30 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 15:35 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 10:23 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 04:12 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 15:12 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:30 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 01:58 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 18:23 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 10:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 07:56 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 14:56 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 14:56 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 13:05 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |