Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 38 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Larkin 52.7% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 43-38 in 81 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 75.4%
Defensive zone
Lowry 70.0%
Neutral zone
Lowry 53.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Lowry
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
43
-
38
(81 meetings)
43
38
Lowry
Larkin
Last 10: Lowry 7-3 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
8
30
Lowry
Larkin
38 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
17
1
Lowry
Larkin
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
18
7
Lowry
Larkin
25 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (9,162)
51.6% (9,056)
+1.3%
Power Play
57.2% (456)
58.6% (2,140)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (2,150)
50.2% (1,124)
-5.4%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,758).
Lowry shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Home / Away
Lowry
Larkin
Home
53.5% (5,920)
53.9% (6,277)
Away
49.6% (5,848)
51.4% (6,043)
By Period
Lowry
Larkin
P1
51.6%
52.7%
P2
51.7%
53.1%
P3
51.5%
52.0%
OT
46.3%
58.4%
Final 5 min
52.8%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
51.6%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 10:53 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 05:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 14:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 07:55 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 07:40 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 00:08 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 14:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 04:11 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 04:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 00:48 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 12:20 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 19:00 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:23 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 14:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 10:17 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 19:57 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 09:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |