Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Vilardi on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Vilardi 46.8% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Vilardi 66.6%
Defensive zone
Lowry 89.0%
Neutral zone
Lowry 73.4%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Lowry
Vilardi
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Lowry
Vilardi
Last 9: Lowry 5-4 Vilardi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Vilardi
1
4
Lowry
Vilardi
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
0
Lowry
Vilardi
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Vilardi
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Vilardi
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (9,162)
45.7% (1,054)
+7.2%
Power Play
57.2% (456)
51.0% (196)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (2,150)
48.1% (27)
-3.3%
On even strength, Lowry has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Vilardi shoots right. Lowry is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,010).
Lowry shoots left. Vilardi is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (936).
Home / Away
Lowry
Vilardi
Home
53.5% (5,920)
47.1% (660)
Away
49.6% (5,848)
46.0% (617)
By Period
Lowry
Vilardi
P1
51.6%
49.4%
P2
51.7%
43.7%
P3
51.5%
46.7%
OT
46.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.8%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
51.6%
Vilardi
38.0%▼
43.5%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 13:31 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 03:46 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 11:53 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2 | 16:04 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 17:25 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 16:03 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 01:17 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 01:10 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 2 | 05:21 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |