Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lowry wins 60.9% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.5% vs Evans 55.0% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lowry 59.0%
Defensive zone
Evans 60.1%
Neutral zone
Lowry 51.5%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
Lowry
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lowry
Evans
Last 5: Lowry 3-2 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
2
Lowry
Evans
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Evans
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (707)
55.6% (522)
+0.1%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
72.7% (11)
+13.0%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (100)
55.2% (210)
-16.2%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Lowry is 60.9% vs right-shot opponents (253).
Lowry shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Home / Away
Lowry
Evans
Home
54.3% (429)
54.7% (402)
Away
53.5% (385)
56.9% (341)
By Period
Lowry
Evans
P1
53.1%
57.9%
P2
55.2%
55.2%
P3
54.4%
53.6%
OT
40.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.1%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 12:16 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 10:14 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 11:53 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 07:11 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 1 | 07:38 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |