Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.5% vs Tavares 56.8% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 57.1%
Defensive zone
Lowry 89.0%
Neutral zone
Lowry 62.2%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Lowry
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Lowry
Tavares
Last 8: Lowry 1-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
5
Lowry
Tavares
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
2
Lowry
Tavares
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (707)
57.7% (975)
-2.0%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
56.0% (250)
+29.7%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (100)
52.2% (23)
-13.2%
On power play, Lowry has a +29.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Lowry is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Lowry shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Home / Away
Lowry
Tavares
Home
54.3% (429)
57.4% (636)
Away
53.5% (385)
57.2% (612)
By Period
Lowry
Tavares
P1
53.1%
57.5%
P2
55.2%
56.9%
P3
54.4%
57.5%
OT
40.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
57.1%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 10:05 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 03:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 15:27 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 03:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 08:50 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 18:43 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 09:05 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 06:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |