Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 66 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Tavares 54.4% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 90-62 in 152 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 52.6%
Defensive zone
Lowry 89.3%
Neutral zone
Lowry 68.6%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 66.0%
66.0%
34.0%
Lowry
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
62
-
90
(152 meetings)
62
90
Lowry
Tavares
Last 10: Lowry 3-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
9
57
Lowry
Tavares
66 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
34
15
Lowry
Tavares
49 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
19
18
Lowry
Tavares
37 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (9,162)
54.0% (16,169)
-1.1%
Power Play
57.2% (456)
56.4% (4,298)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (2,150)
50.5% (624)
-5.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,758).
Lowry shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Home / Away
Lowry
Tavares
Home
53.5% (5,920)
56.1% (10,525)
Away
49.6% (5,848)
52.7% (10,595)
By Period
Lowry
Tavares
P1
51.6%
55.0%
P2
51.7%
54.1%
P3
51.5%
54.0%
OT
46.3%
55.9%
Final 5 min
52.8%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
51.6%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 10:05 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 03:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 15:27 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 03:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 08:50 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 18:43 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 09:05 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 06:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 17:28 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 14:36 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 09:01 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 03:27 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 15:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 03:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 13:03 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 09:19 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 09:01 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 15:09 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 14:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |