Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 29 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Staal 55.3% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 46-39 in 85 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 52.6%
Defensive zone
Lowry 72.6%
Neutral zone
Lowry 62.9%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 59.4%
59.4%
40.6%
Lowry
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
39
-
46
(85 meetings)
39
46
Lowry
Staal
Last 10: Lowry 6-4 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
9
20
Lowry
Staal
29 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
11
5
Lowry
Staal
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
19
21
Lowry
Staal
40 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (9,162)
55.9% (14,654)
-3.0%
Power Play
57.2% (456)
62.7% (1,762)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (2,150)
47.9% (2,907)
-3.1%
On power play, Staal has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,758).
Lowry shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,805).
Home / Away
Lowry
Staal
Home
53.5% (5,920)
56.4% (9,699)
Away
49.6% (5,848)
54.3% (9,689)
By Period
Lowry
Staal
P1
51.6%
55.2%
P2
51.7%
55.9%
P3
51.5%
54.8%
OT
46.3%
56.2%
Final 5 min
52.8%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
51.6%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2025 | 3 | 12:56 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:08 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 17:30 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 16:27 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 1 | 14:58 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 17:19 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 19:47 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 09:19 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 2 | 14:55 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 2 | 07:05 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 11:38 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 08:48 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 02:12 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 18:50 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 00:13 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |