Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Lowry wins 60.9% vs right-shot opponents — Sourdif shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.5% vs Sourdif 45.6% (+9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sourdif 75.2%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 66.8%
Neutral zone
Sourdif 63.1%
Result
Justin Sourdif favored at 67.0%
33.0%
67.0%
Lowry
Sourdif
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Lowry
Sourdif
Last 8: Lowry 3-5 Sourdif
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Sourdif
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
0
2
Lowry
Sourdif
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Lowry
Sourdif
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Sourdif
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (707)
44.3% (585)
+11.4%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
50.0% (24)
+35.7%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (100)
61.5% (13)
-22.5%
On power play, Lowry has a +35.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sourdif shoots right. Lowry is 60.9% vs right-shot opponents (253).
Lowry shoots left. Sourdif is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Lowry
Sourdif
Home
54.3% (429)
43.6% (321)
Away
53.5% (385)
46.2% (301)
By Period
Lowry
Sourdif
P1
53.1%
41.9%
P2
55.2%
44.3%
P3
54.4%
47.9%
OT
40.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.1%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
Sourdif
36.0%▼
41.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 15:35 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 11:08 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 18:15 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 01:30 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 01:24 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |