Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Sourdif 45.6% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sourdif 79.3%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 56.0%
Neutral zone
Sourdif 62.5%
Result
Justin Sourdif favored at 65.1%
34.9%
65.1%
Lowry
Sourdif
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Lowry
Sourdif
Last 8: Lowry 3-5 Sourdif
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Sourdif
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
0
2
Lowry
Sourdif
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Lowry
Sourdif
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Sourdif
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (9,162)
44.3% (585)
+8.6%
Power Play
57.2% (456)
50.0% (24)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (2,150)
61.5% (13)
-16.7%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sourdif shoots right. Lowry is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,010).
Lowry shoots left. Sourdif is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Lowry
Sourdif
Home
53.5% (5,920)
43.6% (321)
Away
49.6% (5,848)
46.2% (301)
By Period
Lowry
Sourdif
P1
51.6%
41.9%
P2
51.7%
44.3%
P3
51.5%
47.9%
OT
46.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
51.6%
Sourdif
36.0%▼
41.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 15:35 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 11:08 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 18:15 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 01:30 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 01:24 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |