Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.5% vs Carlsson 44.6% (+9.9%)
H2H factor
Carlsson leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 75.7%
Defensive zone
Lowry 76.3%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 56.2%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Lowry
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
9
(17 meetings)
8
9
Lowry
Carlsson
Last 10: Lowry 6-4 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
4
Lowry
Carlsson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Carlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
6
4
Lowry
Carlsson
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (707)
45.0% (695)
+10.7%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
46.4% (84)
+39.3%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (100)
32.9% (85)
+6.1%
On power play, Lowry has a +39.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Lowry is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Lowry shoots left. Carlsson is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Lowry
Carlsson
Home
54.3% (429)
42.5% (435)
Away
53.5% (385)
45.5% (429)
By Period
Lowry
Carlsson
P1
53.1%
45.3%
P2
55.2%
38.7%
P3
54.4%
48.5%
OT
40.0%
41.7%
Final 5 min
57.1%
38.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 16:03 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 08:08 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 08:52 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 04:11 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:58 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 08:25 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 02:54 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 00:47 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 19:19 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 15:27 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 05:58 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:08 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 06:01 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:09 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |